Stage 1
Artificial capability
What the AI system itself can do.
Research Map · Human-Development Conversion Constraint
Six stages, not a straight line
The paper states this sequence directly: movement from one stage to the next is possible but never guaranteed. Wording follows the paper's own Section 2.
The conversion sequence
Stage 2
Practical access
Whether the capability is actually reachable by the relevant population, not merely available in principle.
Stage 3
Effective use
Whether access translates into use that actually functions for the person, given literacy, cost, connectivity, and institutional support.
Stage 4
AI-assisted functioning
The person's functioning while assisted — the level most output-based evaluation stops at.
Stage 5
Retained human capacity
What capacity the person keeps, or builds, independent of the assistance being present.
Stage 6
Substantive human development
Durable, distributed expansion of human possibility — the only stage that would justify a human-progress claim.
Reading the map
Technological capability may exist without broad access; access may exist without effective use; effective use may increase performance without producing durable capacity; and improved capacity may coexist with fragile dependence, unequal distribution, or reduced practical authority. The constraint does not treat this as an automatic pipeline — each arrow is a place the conversion can fail, and evidence is required at each step, not assumed.
Citation
Suggested citation
Preble, Micheal Charles. “The Human-Development Conversion Constraint: What Should Count as Progress in AI-Rich Societies?” Available at SSRN 7416900, 2026.
Preble, Micheal Charles. “The Human-Development Conversion Constraint: What Should Count as Progress in AI-Rich Societies?” Available at SSRN 7416900, 2026.